Berlin without Mietspiegel

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The current Berlin rent index 2019 will be the last for the time being.

Because the Berlin Senate wants to introduce a Mietendeckel, in the context of which then no increase in Mietspiegel should be possible. Therefore, it was decided not to advertise for the next Mietspiegel 2021.

This would have been necessary now in 2019 to prepare structure, data collection, etc., so that work can begin in time for the next run. Even if in one or two years is clarified by courts that no legislative competence for a regional rental cover and the legislation is void, there will be no rent index in 2021 because it could not be prepared on time.

To § 558c para. 3 BGB Rental rates are to be adjusted to market developments every two years. To § 558d para. 3 BGB is a Mietspiegel only in this time window as qualified with the result that only then can be assumed that the values ​​given in it still apply.

The implication is that the housing industry will need 2021's other justification from June.

That can (after § 558a Civil Code) be an expert opinion (expensive) or comparative apartments (which in turn require an expert opinion in the process) or: information from a rental database (§ 558e Civil Code).

Thus, the Senate reveals its most important control instrument for influencing rents in the city!

The rent index 2019 (as well as the previous ones) contains various statistical decisions that lead to a reduction in the reported values. The mean value of a field is, for example, the so-called median, ie the middle data set from the collected number of data records. Are in a field 100 data collected, so is the Median the record number 50. Regardless of its rent, this is the average value shown in the rent index. You can do it that way. You could also start with the average instead. The statisticians in the working group have repeatedly reminded us that the median approach leads to significantly lower values. I did not recalculate this for all fields, but in those I did, the average of the average between 20 and 30% would be higher than the table shows.

Then the raised Values ​​capped by 25% - not even mathematically, but in the number of records. If 100 values ​​were collected in a field, the upper 12 and the lower 12 were deleted. There is no scientific justification for this, the note in the official explanations (in section 4 para. 6) is hidden in much text. Now the new lease rentals are usually. at the upper end of the spans. In this way, the weighting between old rent changes and new contracts has been shifted in favor of the former, resulting in a significantly lower statement of the amounts. In some cases the upper values ​​are more than 4 Euro / sqm lower than without this capping, see eg the field F1 in the entry picture above.

Furthermore, in the Mietspiegel 2019 the residential areas citywide regroupedin about 1 / 4 of all cases. Mostly lower residential areas have slid up a step. This means that the higher-priced fields are given many low values, which lowers the statistical average. In fact, the housing estate is correct and necessary, but statistically it distorts the rental trend down.

Finally, rent levels are at the time of their appearance chronologically living veraltet, The survey key date is the 1. September of the even year, the rent index usually appears. in May of the following year, so 9 months later. The rental development of these 9 months is not shown here. If you take a rent increase or re-lease a year later, you are working with dates that are 1 year and 9 months old.

If the Berlin Senate no longer participates in the Mietspiegelerstellung, he gives his means of reducing in the manner described above, the official figures.

Information from a (private) rental database eliminates political influence on the numbers

The housing industry of Berlin, if they want to carry out 2021 still rent increases or make new leases from June, a rental database (must) build, which replaces the blank space of the missing rent mirror. Statistical decisions with the aim of a reduction in value are unlikely there. It also does not need residential areas: with a sufficiently large number of records, one can simply eject 100 comparable apartments from a radius of eg 2 km and derive a spread therefrom.

In order to be able to determine the comparability of the dwellings, basically only the data that was previously field-defining in the rent index, that is the year of construction and the size of the dwelling coupled to a perimeter restriction for the location, and the date when the rent stated in the database is agreed / has been changed. In each case, those records that are not older than 4 years at the time of the query should be discarded, specifying a range (lowest / highest value and average as average). If the rental database is kept up-to-date either automatically or manually, it works with highly up-to-date data sets that represent market trends without any time delay and without statistical distortions.

Once such a rental database has been set up, it will be difficult for the Senate to counter a new rental mirror statistics at some point after the rental cover expires, working with the old statistical guidelines. Because the deviations in the values ​​in comparison to the highly up-to-date database will be so striking that a question of credibility arises. Maybe that can not be captured anymore.

Whether that is so wanted?

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